- Denial is gone as reality bites.- As globalisation fades and debt mounts, stagflation emerges.- Bonds and financials to underperform from here.- World growth to be down 10-15% in 2020 and looking L shaped.- A systematic failure has been averted, but with significant...

Not since WWII have we seen government spending packages like these.  They are unprecedented in peace times.  Last week we tabled stimulus packages that ranged from 0.25 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This week the range is a 2.9 percent to 17 percent! Clearly...

In the last three years, Australian houses have gone from boom to bust to boom, and are now eyeing off potential coronavirus weakness. Coronavirus is a huge issue. But let’s leave it aside for a now (I wrote here about residential property potentially facing a Wile E...

“It will cost something to reduce mobility… but to fail to do so will eventually cost everything” The GFC of 2008 was caused by financial imbalances that eventually bled into the real economy. The COVID-19 crisis is the reverse.  This supply shock has slowed the...

Many governments are not being transparent about what is going on as a result of COVID-19.  There are enough unknowns without having to deal with ‘fake news’ and government cover ups.  At the time of writing the official number of COVID-19 cases worldwide reached...

For the rest of the world, China matters as a source of demand, a source of supply, and a focus of concern for financial markets: In 2019, China imports came in at $2.1 trillion. Sales in China are a major earner for multinationals. And Chinese tourists staying home...

Why the US will move to negative interest rates, and quickly, to beat the COVID-19 fallout       Key points: Will the virus create a global credit crunch. Can central banks create a ripple effect. What will happen to investment markets in the short term. Last...

At the time of writing, the stock markets around the world are falling in reaction to the outbreak of coronavirus and its impact on economic growth, company earnings and consumer confidence.  As previously reported there are two scenarios - Containment and Outbreak. ...