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Are leaders gambling against Covid-19?
Is the world disconnected from Covid-19 and will property collapse in 2020 as immigration evaporates? Since last writing in April we have seen the human devastation of Covid-19 unfold. The seemingly unbelievable death tolls that were forecast have unfortunately...
How do we transition to a world where the virus is part of everyday life?
- Denial is gone as reality bites.- As globalisation fades and debt mounts, stagflation emerges.- Bonds and financials to underperform from here.- World growth to be down 10-15% in 2020 and looking L shaped.- A systematic failure has been averted, but with significant...
Governments go to war and spend up
Not since WWII have we seen government spending packages like these. They are unprecedented in peace times. Last week we tabled stimulus packages that ranged from 0.25 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This week the range is a 2.9 percent to 17 percent! Clearly...
How high can the Australian house price boom go?
In the last three years, Australian houses have gone from boom to bust to boom, and are now eyeing off potential coronavirus weakness. Coronavirus is a huge issue. But let’s leave it aside for a now (I wrote here about residential property potentially facing a Wile E...
What will it take to re-boot the economy while everything crashes around it?
“It will cost something to reduce mobility… but to fail to do so will eventually cost everything” The GFC of 2008 was caused by financial imbalances that eventually bled into the real economy. The COVID-19 crisis is the reverse. This supply shock has slowed the...
Lies, damn lies, and Coronavirus
Many governments are not being transparent about what is going on as a result of COVID-19. There are enough unknowns without having to deal with ‘fake news’ and government cover ups. At the time of writing the official number of COVID-19 cases worldwide reached...
Why China matters so much pre and post lockdown
For the rest of the world, China matters as a source of demand, a source of supply, and a focus of concern for financial markets: In 2019, China imports came in at $2.1 trillion. Sales in China are a major earner for multinationals. And Chinese tourists staying home...
“Be calm. It will go away.”
Why the US will move to negative interest rates, and quickly, to beat the COVID-19 fallout Key points: Will the virus create a global credit crunch. Can central banks create a ripple effect. What will happen to investment markets in the short term. Last...
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